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J&K 2014 elections portend disaster

By Syed Tassadque Hussain. Dated: 9/10/2014 10:57:34 PM

The ongoing transformation of India into a totally naked Hindu State, is bereft of all in-consequential no longer a mere masquerade, rather it is the continuation of a historical process, that may eventually lead to new confrontations in South Asia. The hub of the problem is that in India we have not witnessed a peoples revolution for the past five hundred years. What we are witnessing is an organized, orchestrated campaign by a reactionary group in a sly manner. We are not witnessing a peoples revolution spawned by ringing phrases, catchy slogans, highlighting fiery people's emotions that then are channelised to radically transform a living and vibrant nation, its mores, its customs its traditions, that then get translated into a sea change, called complete transformation of a country.
Instead we are witnessing a painfully slow deliberate sustained effort on the part of a vociferous group of revive in age of modernism, a new blend of region and nationalism. This is ominous.
This neo-nationalism has spacious appeal to attract Indian University Students, middle class urban traders, fire brand street corner religious operatives, and semi-ideologically errant while collar workers, the so-called pseudo-intellectuals fed on mundified nonsense instigated by party leaders of wanton adventurist reactionaries, and the loose cannon, munchkins who are always a menace to society.
In such a political turmoil the masses believe that democracy in its core essence means heavy handed rule by a bunch of inspired idiots and in Indian context it means the charged up protagonists of Hindu nationalism.
In this backdrop I would be justified in pointing out that the politics in J&K State has been so immensely messed up that Hindu-Muslim polarization is now founded on the illusions of insecure minds, symptomatic of eccentric interpretations of the political events, sans the contemporary milieus. So elections in 2014 were aimed to achieve + 41 electoral seats in Jammu by BJP and three seats in the valley by same party is going to lead to a confrontation between Jammu and Srinagar. The upshot would be a militarily insecure India. The major issue is that BJP leaders in Jammu stand in their own light. And what does militarily insecure India means in concrete terms? It means that:-
a/ Foreign holding in defence in coming years will exceed 50% limit or more. India will for the next five years continue to be world top buyer of defence equipment from USA and Israel. Already India and USA have negotiated 2.5 billion dollar deal for 15 Chinook heavy lift Helicoptors (b) twenty two apache Helicoptors (c) India will have to invest more than fifty thousand crore rupees on purchase of 145M-777 ultra-light Howizers (d) and latest infra-red Javelin Anti-tank Missiles (e) raise a new fifty thousand strong fully equipped mountain division (f) and invest double this amount on modernization of its Navy and Air Force, and already this insecurity has rein forced. The defence ministry has taken steps to remain in preparation for war with Pakistan. Now the slogan in Jammu that BJP will involve an effort to install a Hindu Chief Minister in the State is also symptomatic of insecurity based Modi politics. The BJP leaders in Jammu forget that India's, heavy spending of budget on defence means:-
i/ Indian Projects of linking rivers in India will continue to remain a pipe dream.
ii/ Paucity of water will create necessity for new dams, diverting funds from Industrial development and growth.
iii/ For the next five years the GDP will hover round 4 percent, which is an abiding shame as Pakistan's GDP despite a raging domestic civil war in that country is hovering around 4% while China is on the march and may touch 9% high-water mark in a few years time.
The BJP leaders in Jammu also forget that in the changing world scenario, the contemporary Russia has become increasingly dependent on China, and, in any Security Council resolution on Kashmir in future Russia is expected to abstain from casting its vote in favour of India.
India's proximity to Israel, has made India suspect in the eyes of middle eastern oil producing countries, especially when India is going to enhance its trade with Israel to the limit of 4 billion dollars and more in coming years. Now the compulsion of circumstances will force India to buy oil from Latin American countries, adding hugely to the costs to be incurred in future, leading to retardation of economic growth.
India's proximity to Israel, will force Iran to distance itself from India. At present India is importing 80% of its crude oil from, Saudi Arabia and Iraq. USA policies in Iraq have undergone a change and now for its own survival in Asia USA will have to quell ISIS in Iraq will have consolidate Shia dominated oil producing countries like Iran and Iraq that will change the Scenario in Asia.
This apercu of international politics ensures that it is in the interests of USA and China and it is a total imperative that Pakistan Army shall continue to be sustained by them as a stabilizing force in that country. So the million dollar question to be addressed is that will happen in Kashmir, after USA withdraws its armed forced from Afghanistan? How long will India be allowed by China and Pakistan to carve out a sphere of influence in Afghanistan? At present India's strategic depth in Afghanistan is sheer refined non-sense. The exhibition of mobocracy in Islamabad by Pakistan Tehrik Insaf and Pakistan Awami Tehreek has ensured that Pakistani Punjab will continue to be matrix for the Talibans who may slowly relocate themselves in Indian Kashmir. These are the portents for the future in Kashmir. In this backdrop this obvious reality is to be viewed in the context of change in political scenario in Bangladesh and Myanmar. The winds of change in Bangladesh are blowing hard. The next regime in Bangladesh is expected to be Pakistan friendly. China will ensure its total influence in Myanmar.
In such a situation India will become totally dependent on USA. India and China despite growing and escalating trade would not be able to resolve their long standing festering boundary dispute.
Demographic alteration of population in Jammu region is an invitation to China to effect demographic alteration of population in Ladakh and Askardu. In 2001, I pointed out in an article that Chinese may find it convenient to encourage the Vigar Muslims of Suikiang to get seltted in Askardu and other northern areas.
In find, what I am goint to State in plain terms is that Modi is not an intellectual but he is politically sharp. He should not miss the clear explicit war signals that will queer the pitch for India, and, encourage it to get entrapped in a political morass:-
".......In an essay in 2011 I Pointed out that there is lurking danger of limited Indo-Pak war in the year 2015. I still adhere-to this view point.
Polarization of Hindu and Muslim populations in Jammu & Kashmir State is a sure recipe for the impending disaster. There is need to discover ways and means for a new discourse in Kashmir some extra-ordinary drama is about to begin in J&K State, if BJP in Jammu displaying rare versatility is able to achieve its + 44 mission in October 2014 elections. That will be the beginning of the end.
(The author is Senior Advocate, J&K High Court, Srinagar.)