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Will the Kiran Bedi gamble work?

By Obaid Imtiyaz Mir. Dated: 1/28/2015 11:11:05 PM

Delhi goes to polls in two week's time and the big question on everyone's mind is how different are the results going to be than the last time. Political temperature in the capital has already been rising after Bhartiya Janta Party (BJP) dramatically announced Kiran Bedi , a former team Anna member and most importantly a Kejriwal accomplice in India Against Corruption as their Chief Ministerial candidate. With the Congress having already receded in background of political irrelevance, it is set to be a mouth-watering contest between Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) and BJP especially because of the fact that both parties' chief ministerial candidates are known for their disdain of conventional brand of politics although some accuse Ms Bedi of doing a volte-face by joining a mainstream political establishment, an idea she was vehemently oppposed to less than a year ago. Although her joining the BJP has not come as a complete surprise, a point reiterated by AAP leader Kumar Vishwas who has said that she was always a BJP sympathiser and had a soft corner for its leadership, indirectly accusing her of harbouring political ambitions from the very beginning.
Coming to the question as to what the equation might be regarding the results, exit polls may be right in suggesting that Kejriwal may not have lost much favour after all despite his widely unpopular resignation after a brief forty nine day rule and may still retain the confidence of the lower middle class electorate who formed the bulk of his vote-base in the last elections and who have little reason to not see AAP as a force for political reform in the same manner as it was viewed during the last elections. The perception that Kejriwal would lose most of his support post his unfruitful short-stint does not carry too much weight.
What gives the AAP a bit more fillip is the fact that BJP's influence seems to have waned and even the BJP seems to be vary of the fact that the 'Modi wave'; if ever there was one has ebbed considerably which is quite evident in their choice of an unexpected face for CM'S post. It remains to be seen if this gamble will pay off. But it has already given way to enough dissent within the BJP state leadership and its voters for the national leadership to worry.
It is already becoming quite evident from the popular reaction that Kiran Bedi's political avatar may not find as much acceptance in the general public as her activist persona. The influential Delhi elite which was frequently a target of Ms Bedi's tirade as representing the antithesis of the common man is surely not amused with the idea of Kiran Bedi leading the Delhi Assembly. Another fallout of projecting Bedi as CM candidate has been the loss of crucial support of Lawyers' community in the capital whose unflinching loyalty the BJP has enjoyed in past many elections. The Delhi Bar Association has made it clear that the selection of 'authoritarian' Kiran Bedi is completely unacceptable to them; and has even asked the BJP leadership to reconsider their decision. It is quite ironic that the lawyer-community has no issue with an authoritarian Prime Minister but finds a lathi charge ordered by Ms Bedi on some bar-members twenty years ago unforgivable.
All these factors together should mean advantage AAP. Now, if Arvind Kejriwal and Company can steer the advantage in their favour, the Bhartya Janta Party's gamble may not work as well as they would have hoped.
The fact that some of the prominent AAP faces have quit the party and joined the BJP just before the elections is like cannon fodder for Arvind Kejriwal who is mincing no words in targetting his former comrades' 'U-turns'.
Although the AAP may have lost its Muslim face and most prominent minority voice, journalist turned politician Shazia Ilmi to the BJP , but it still has good reasons to believe that it will secure more Muslim votes this time around than it did in the previous elections last year. Congress enjoyed overwhelming Muslim support in the last elections as seven of its nine elected legislators were Muslims. But the political irrelevance of Congress in the state politics coupled with the increasing belligerence of the right-wing groups post the formation of BJP led government will make the minorities vote for a more formidable opposition which can take on such forces.
Therefore, far from writing Kejriwal off as some analysts have done, facts suggest that the Aam Aadmi Party may throw an even bigger surprise this time around.
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