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BJP may not benefit from Bihar package

By B.K. Chum. Dated: 9/1/2015 1:07:24 AM

Modi's leadership is under strain

Two events made media headlines two weeks ago. One was Prime Minister Narendra Modi's announcement of Rs.1.25 lakh crore package for Bihar. The other was the midnight arrest of five students of the Pune's 54 year-old world-renowned Film and Television Institute of India (FTII) whose students have been on strike protesting against the appointment of RSS man Gajendra Chauhan as Institute's Chairman.
On elections-eve those in power make populist announcements and those seeking power make unachievable promises. The announcement of Rs.1.25 lakh crore package made by Modi at his last week's election rally in Behar has, therefore, not come as a surprise for the longtime watchers of India's political scene. But the vital question is: Will the mega package have any significant positive impact on the BJP's electoral prospects in Bihar?
It is too hazardous to make predictions about elections outcome. Yet, there are factors which may not yield electoral dividends prime minister, BJP and RSS top brass, which is expected to push its cadres in full strength into the poll campaign, are trying to reap. There are reasons for the presumption.
Firstly, no timeline has been announced for delivery of the package. Given the formalities and red-tape that mar governance it may take long to implement the announced schemes. Secondly, the list Modi has announced does not contain many new schemes. A report by a national English Daily says that except the 1300-MW Buxor power plant, establishment of skill university and a new petrochemical plant, most of the populist announcements made by Modi are either planned outlays, or represent repackaging of the schemes already under implementation.
The announcement of the mega package reflects the realization by Modi and the BJP leadership of the high stakes they have in the outcome of the Behar polls. They seem to be conscious of the fact that if success eludes the saffron party in Bihar, it will make the Modi government and the saffron party more vulnerable. The party was almost wiped out in the Delhi assembly elections where it could secure only three of the 70 seats. Failure in Bihar would further erode Modi's already dented image and would dampen the party's future political and electoral fortunes. Besides, the BJP's self-acclaimed title of being the "world's largest party" based on its claim of having the "largest membership" any political party has in the world would also lose its credibility.
There are already signs of nervousness in the BJP over the challenge posed by the grand alliance of Nitish Kumar's JD(U), Lalu Yadav's RJD, Congress and others in Bihar. The top brass of the saffron party now seems to be trying to create a rift in the alliance.
Modi's announcement of the mega package for Bihar is bound to create problems for him and BJP's relations not only with the NDA allies but also with the non-NDA parties ruling some of the states the BJP is trying to woo. These parties are bound to demand Bihar-like mega financial package for their states. The Modi government which has already been experiencing financial crunch may find it virtually impossible to grant Bihar-like packages for them.
The BJP's staunchest ally Punjab chief minister Parkash Singh Badal has already complained that the Centre has not been responding to his demand for ending "discrimination against Punjab as successive Congress governments had betrayed the state." His charge would have acquired greater credibility had he backed it by data of help given to Punjab by the successive Central governments. Obviously for partisan reasons he has not identified the "successive governments" which include those headed by Atal Behari Vajpayee, I.K.Gujral, Manmohan Singh and now Narendra Modi. Badal must be feeling the "discrimination against Punjab by the Modi government" more agonizing as during his Gandhinagar visit in the first week of Sept. 2013 when Modi appeared to be destined to occupy prime minister's chair, Badal had heaped praise on him describing him as the country's "greatest leader" and a "Sardar".
The Akali Dal-BJP's relations are going to have testing times despite the frequent assertions made by the chief minister that the two ruling allies have "unbreakable ties"
The second event of midnight arrest of five students of the FTII exemplifies the disturbing trend that is overtaking India's politics. The Institute's students have been on strike for over two months in protest against the appointment of Gajendra Chauhan, an RSS nominee as the Institute's Chairman for his only qualification of "having played the role of Yudhishtra in the TV's Mahabharta serial." The appointment indicates the trend of politicizing reputed institutions.
India's Constitutional Institutions had become the victim of the Emergency imposed by Indira Gandhi in 1975. There is no Emergency now, nor is there any possibility of its being imposed in the country's changed circumstances. But trends which will harm the multi-religious India's plurality and its unified cultural heritage are increasingly becoming discernible. Such trends include the attempts to communally polarize the nation by the steps like appointing persons of indoctrinated communal minds in key governmental and constitutional positions. Among such appointments are those of the chief of the Film Censor Board and now the FTII. These 'dignitaries' are said to be the RSS-favourites. A national English Daily has now reported that the original list of FTII president and its members proposed by its then director D.J. Narain and sent to I& B Ministry on December 2, 2014 was ignored and the luminaries in cinema and art recommended as society members were replaced by other lesser-known names, all of them with known links to the RSS and the BJP.
Apart from the foregoing issues, what should be more worrisome for Modi is his own controversial style of functioning which is increasingly being questioned.
It is not only the Akali Dal-BJP's relations which are going to have testing times, the coming period will also be testing for Modi as his stature as PM would be under strain if he does not take timely corrective steps.
—(IPA Service)