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2 Years of Modi regime, no Green but lots of Saffron ticks

By M Anwar. Dated: 5/27/2016 10:51:26 PM

It is party time for BJP and the wider network of Sangh Parivar. It is euphoria on all fronts, made little sweeter by their recent conquest of Assam and dismantling of Congress in assembly election. They sure have real reason to celebrate successes but not against what they promised to Indian public but against their real agenda of polarising and dividing the society to further their vision of a Hindu Rashtra. They won the election on "Development Agenda" and promised clean and effective governance to usher in Ache Din for all. So it is time for a stock take.
Development Agenda
Modi got a resounding mandate for his Development Agenda. It was rightly expected that he will introduce big reforms to stimulate economy and administration. Now 2 years down the line, we haven't seen any serious reforms, barring few tinkerings here and there. What Manmohan Singh, as finance minister in a minority government, achieved in few months remains a distant target for Modi Regime. They may claim hindrances from an unsupportive opposition but as ruling party, it is their responsibility to take everyone along. They can't keep hymning "Congress Mukt Bharat" all the time and still expect them to provide unqualified support.
Economy is in a bad shape. Mr Jaitley's claim to fame that fiscal deficit is less than 4% of GDP is flawed. Firstly, the underlying Maths has been fudged to reduce government borrowing by asking some ministries (like Railways) to borrow directly. Secondly, government cushioned its finances by retaining 80% of savings from drop of international oil prices (From $106/per barrel in May 2014 to about $37/per barrel by March 2016) and passing on only 20% of savings to end customers.
Manufacturing growth is stalled. Exports have plummeted. Stock market is shaky and hovering around May 2014 level, implying a real loss of value. Banking sector is in a precarious condition with toxic ( non performing) assets of listed banks alone exceeding 400,000 crores. Many experts believe that actual situation is far worse as most of the banks are still shying away from identifying all toxic assets.
The Government has succeeded on inflation front, bringing it down from 8% to 5%. However, lot of credit for this achievement is due to astute monetary policy and discipline followed by Mr Raghuram Rajan, Governor RBI. He has also tasked the banks to clean out toxic assets from their balance sheets latest by March 2017. This is a huge ask as total toxic assets could exceed current capital of these banks. Government may not like this prescription which could also be a reason why they have let loose people like Subramaniam Swamy to shore up support for getting Mr Rajan sacked.
Agriculture sector has gone from bad to worse. There are no visible plans to reform and develop this backbone of rural India. Farmer suicides are a daily occurrence. There is no safety net for those who are tossed between greedy money lenders and starvation. Focus has to shift to preventing these suicides rather than using their funeral for serving sermons. First step in that direction could be taking over the loans of the lowest strata of Farmers with marginal holdings. This problem is similar to problem of toxic assets of banks. If we can bail out banks, why not the farmers?
Good Governance
Another big promise of the Modi Government was to provide good governance, to punish the corrupt and to bring black money back.
Going by evidence so far, Modi is not corrupt and his cabinet colleagues know that they can't afford to be corrupt. Hence, no scams. But has this culture percolated beyond Delhi? Or is Delhi watching when things go the other way. Looks like BJP has improved on the art of double standards. If someone else indulges in corruption, they take a high moral ground but if it is one of their own, then they use fuzzy logic and use their resources, including media, to suppress the information. Vyapam Scam (in Madhya Pradesh) and Pankaja Munde Scam (in Maharashtra) are prime examples. So campaign against corruptions may be limited to Lutyen's Delhi.
During their campaign, they made Robert Vadra as mascot for anti-corruption crusade. Now two years on, they have not proved anything. They have not even initiated any serious investigation. Something like this can't happen by default, so it must be a plan to maintain status quo and just use it for occasional barks. Recently, they introduced their loose cannon Subramaniam Swamy into Rajya Sabha to take on Sonia Gandhi for new revelations in Augusta-Westland Helicopter case. It is ironic that they waged this verbal war based on an Italian Court's judgement whereas they had 2 years to investigate this case but have done precious little to get to any conclusion. One can only infer from these two cases, that they have no real intention to take any firm action and would rather store such allegation to be used as Defence against their own misdeeds like Vyapam and Munde scams.
When it comes to black money, they did promise to bring it back within 100 days and pass it on to every poor Indian. Estimates varied from Rs 3 lakhs to Rs 15 lakhs per head. What happened during last 2 years is history. We are no closer to uncovering this treasure than we were 2 years back. Government has done precious little. Even response to recent leaks through Panama investigation have been lukewarm. The fact that one of the Panama accused is hosting their celebration event is proof enough of how non serious they are about black money.
Saffron Agenda
Once in power, Sangh Parivar started flexing its muscles to realise its vision of a Hindu Rashtra. They fired their first salvo of "Love Jihaad" just before UP Assembly Bye election in 2014. A Muslim boy marrying a Hindu girl is "Love Jihaad", a gruesome crime, whereas a Hindu boy marrying a Muslim girl is a noble cause! Fortunately, people of UP did not fall for this divisive trap and rejected BJP at hustings.
Next up was "Ghar Wapsi". It is blasphemous for any Hindu to convert to a different religion whereas conversion of a non-Hindu to Hinduism is only treated as "Ghar Wapsi" to be welcomed by the society. In many instances, people were forced to re-convert back to Hinduism. Also to protect Hindu girls, Union Minister Giriraj Singh wants the government to prescribe a 2 child limit for all.
Getting bolder by the day, Sangh Parivar took it upon itself to redefine Nationalism and to specify selection criteria for the same. One has to follow their views to qualify to be a nationalist. There is no room for debate and criticism. If you don't shout "Bharat Mata Kee Jai", you are anti national. If you are even rumoured to have consumed beef, you are anti national and to be lynched to death, like Mohammad Akhlaq of Dadri. Testing of meat in his refrigerator took precedence over his postmortem. Those who voiced their opinion against Beef Ban are anti national.
Modi Government has been obsessed with Saffronising the educational institutions, which includes getting rid of faculty and students who do not toe its and Sangh Parivar's line. Nobel laureate Amartya Sen, who was critical of the government, was forced to leave chancellor's post at Nalanda University when Modi government did not approve his nomination for a second term.
The government appointed Mr Gajendra Chauhan as the Chairman of the new Governing Council of Film and Television Institute of India(FTII). His only qualification was being a loyalist. All students were up in arms with 139 day strike which they called off just to save their academic year from complete ruin. The government was totally non-responsive and ignored criticism from students and the film industry.
HRD ministry headed by Smriti Irani, egged on by their local ABVP student wing, forced Hyderabad University to take stern action against Dalit students which in turn lead to suicide by Rohith Vemula. There was a huge uproar but the government did not even conduct a fair investigation. Next on menu was Jawaharlal Nehru University. Here left leaning Kanhaiya Kumar and Umar Khalid were arrested on serious charge of sedition. Action was taken on the basis of a fake video and complaint of JNU ABVP cell. Kanhaiya Kumar was severely beaten within court compound under police custody. Both were finally granted bail but practically no action was taken against the media channel which broadcast the fake video and the people who attacked Kanhaiya Kumar while he was under police custody. During this entire episode, the government allowed and abetted JNU being portrayed as an anti national institution.
Smriti Irani and Home Minister Raj Nath had no time or sympathy for students of FTII, Rohit Vemula and Kanhaiya Kumar but both rushed to seek assurance from J&K CM Mehbooba Mufti for safety of non local students who were involved in skirmishes with local police in NIT Srinagar.
HRD Ministry has embarked on rewriting history and text books. We want no more of Mughals or even Nehru. World renown IIT's are ordered to teach Sanskrit. All educational institutions have to observe Yoga day with a compulsory Om thrown in. This initiative is further strengthened by renaming of roads and cities to fit these into overall picture of a Hindu Rashtra.
Now the Sangh Parivar has turned its full attention to UP Assembly election in 2017. Bajrang Dal is organising Arms training camps across the state. Lessons are imparted for using rifles, swords and lathies and participants are as young as 8 years old. These camps are supposedly training people to fight terrorist but the skull caps of the targets used in these camps is an indication enough that the actual target is Muslims. BJP is officially distancing itself but their official voice in the state, the governor Ram Naik has openly supported these camps.
In conclusion, it is clear that Modi Government has failed to deliver its Development agenda and has done precious little to stop corruption and bring back black money. However, it has made considerable progress on its Saffron agenda and increased communal tension across the country. We are now in a perpetual state of unease and just wonder whether Ache Din may already be behind us.
(The author is Delhi based management consultant and a fellow member of the institute of Chartered Accountants of India. He can be contacted at mansooranwar12@hotmail.com)