UP may witness a four cornered contest for State Assembly

By Dr Satish Misra. Dated: 8/26/2016 11:29:17 PM

In less than six months, a new government would be installed in Lucknow after the announcement of assembly election results of the biggest state of the country.
The race to capture power has begun with all political parties without exception are leaving no stone unturned to catch the imagination of the electorate which is divided on caste and religious lines.
Unlike in the two previous assembly elections in 2007 and 2012 when the contest mainly was between the state based regional parties and the national parties were playing only a marginal or insignificant role, the two national parties namely the Bhartiya Janata Party and the Congress are making every effort to be serious contenders for power in the 2017 assembly battle.
The BJP, which had won 71 parliamentary seats in the 2014 general elections under the leadership of the then chief party campaigner and party's face Narendra Modi, has significantly very high political stakes in the outcome of the assembly electoral battle.
If the ruling party at the centre is able to win the assembly elections then it would revalidate the popularity of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and would confirm the return to power of the BJP government in New Delhi in 2019 but in case it is not able to substantially add to its present strength of 47 MLAs in the state assembly then it would be beginning of the end of the NDA government in New Delhi.
Similarly, the outcome of the UP assembly elections is equally important for the Congress. The Congress was able to win only two Lok Sabha seats out of total 80 from the state in 2014 when it could retain Amethi and Raibarelli which have been traditional family strongholds of the Nehru-Gandhi family with popular vote share plummeting to 7.50 per cent.
There are some signs that the Congress is in the popular reckoning if one goes with party chief Sonia Gandhi and vice president Rahul Gandhi's show at Varansai and Lucknow. Subsequent two Yatras being undertaken by party's chief ministerial candidate Sheila Dikshit and state unit president Raj Babbar, which will cover 66 districts, are also evoking reasonably good response from people.
The party is also trying to woo 11 per cent Brahmin voters of the state and in case it succeeds in attracting them then the party would also be favourably poised to get the support of about 17 per cent Muslim electorate giving the party a fair chance to give a good fight. The Congress is reportedly also trying to forge electoral alliances with smaller parties including with the JD (U) of Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar and Rashtriya Lok Dal of former Union Minister Ajit Singh.
If the party is able to maintain the momentum till the elections scheduled to be held in the first quarter of the next year and gives people good candidates to choose then the party may emerge as a king maker in the formation of the next government in the state which would also mean denying the BJP political power.
A significant improvement of its 2012 score of 28 MLAs in the state assembly and also of its share of popular votes would be a sure enough indicator that country's oldest party would be sure on the road to political recovery and a serious contender at the next general elections.
How far the two succeed in their mission will decide not only the future course of the state politics but also that of the national politics.
The Samajwadi Party (SP and the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), which have alternatively been in power for over 15 years, are two regional parties whose performance in 2017 state polls would determine the course of national politics.
The ruling Samajwadi Party of Chief Minister Akhilesh Yadav is facing not only an anti-incumbency factor but there are serious cracks within. Bad law and order situation in the state and charge of 'Yadavisation' of the state Police force has spoiled the image of the government.
Though the Chief Minister is giving his best to present a positive picture of his government through a massive advertisement campaign in the state and national media listing various achievements in last four and half year, yet it may not prove to be enough to help him and his party electorally because advertisements rarely help to revive political fortunes.
Another factor which is going against the ruling party is the ongoing conflict and differences between different leaders of the party some of them happen to be blood relations of the Chief Minister. Two of the brothers of the party patriarch Mulayam Singh Yadav namely SP general secretary Ramgopal Yadav and Shivpal Singh Yadav, who is also a prominent minister in Akhilesh government, are significant power centres in the party and often work at cross purposes.
The BSP, whose imperious leader and four times UP chief minister Mayawati, was a front runner in the race of power till couple of months back but off late some desertions from the party including that of its former Rajya Sabha Brajesh Pathak and accusations that she sells party tickets has adversely impacted her political fortunes,
Though her rally at Agra on August 21 witnessed a huge turnout where Mayawati lashed out at the BJP and the ruling SP government, yet the BSP will have to regain lot of political ground to emerge a clear winner in the 2017 battle. The BSP is trying to woo Muslim electorate by giving a high percentage of tickets to the Muslim candidates and if minority community opts for the Dalit party then Mayawati would be the next chief minister for the record five times but it is too early to say as there are enough ifs and buts. Battle is shaping up and outcome is yet wide open.
--[IFS]

 

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