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Amarinder Singh's initial moves are promising

By B.K. Chum. Dated: 3/21/2017 11:48:51 PM

Punjab strongly ns[eeds a good governance

What is likely to be Punjab's future political scenario after the 2017 assembly polls whose outcome has thrown up some surprises? The answer cannot be attempted without analyzing the factors which have played an important role in the polls outcome. The piece begins with comments on the fate the mainstream contesting parties have met.
The vanquished deserve sympathy. The victor needs breathing time. Punjab's Akali-BJP alliance and the AAP fall in the first category and the Congress in the second. Have they earned the desired treatment in state assembly elections? Perhaps yes.
Normally, one should not be harsh towards the vanquished. But an analysis of the factors behind the Akali Dal and BJP's electoral rout in 2017 shows that the main reasons for the alliance's humiliating debacle were the strong anti-incumbency sentiment created by the misrule, mal-functioning of the coalition government and its faulty politico-governance priorities. Coupled with these was the arrogant and dictatorial style of Deputy Chief Minister and party president Sukhbir Badal's functioning which created widespread resentment among the people.
The first signs of the trend had emerged soon after the alliance rode to power in 2007 by defeating the Capt. Amarinder Singh-led Congress government. In the local body elections that followed, Sukhbir's Youth Akali Dal's weapon-wielding goons captured polling booths in the party's traditional stronghold of Malwa region helping the party sweep the local bodies polls. Even the followers of the alliance's junior partner BJP had then held protests against Sukhbir brigade's capturing of polling booths.
The trend of such dictatorial functioning took worse forms during the coalition's 2007-2017 rule. The state police was politicized. Police stations were virtually converted into Akali Dal's extended offices. Being the party chief, Sukhbir appointed local Akali leaders, most of them defeated Akali MLAs, as 'halqa incharges' on whose command, the police started functioning. Cases started being registered and excesses being committed by the police against the Akali Dal's opponents.
What proved to be the proverbial last straw on the camel's back was the Akali leadership using its weapon of religio-political mix. The move proved to be counter-productive. The radical Sikhs also used the religious weapon by holding rival sarbat khalsa last year. The event unnerved the ruling Akali leadership. Coupled with the incidents of sacrilege of the holy book Granth Sahib at a number of places, the developments proved to be Frankenstein which nullified the political gains the Akali Dal had hoped from use of religion to counter their political opponents. The situation thus created also played a major role in eroding the Akalis support base among the Sikhs particularly in its Malwa stronghold.
These factors were mainly responsible for the ruling coalition's worst electoral performance in the last two decades as the alliance partners could secure only 15 and three seats respectively in the 117-member House in 2017. The coalition had secured 75+18 seats in 1997, 41+3 in 2002, 49+19 in 2007 and 56+12 in 2012.
The alliance's tally of 18 seats, two less than the 20 secured by the AAP, has resulted in the new entrant's earning the title of the principal Opposition in House. Right from the beginning the Badals were aware of the challenge which AAP had the potential to pose as the debutant party had won four Lok Sabha seats in 2014, the number Dal had with the Congress and the Dal's ally BJP securing three and two seats respectively.
The Congress leadership was also aware of the threat AAP would pose to the party. AAP which had expressed its confidence to capture power in Punjab, however, failed to realise its dream mainly for four reasons: Absence of a leader enjoying state-wide influence; failure to announce its chief ministerial candidate; expulsions/resignations by a number of its leaders in the preceding few months and the authoritarian style of Arvind Kejriwal's functioning.
When Kejriwal announced that AAP would contest Punjab Assembly elections and would lead the party's campaign, it virtually unnerved the Akali leadership. To boost the morale of his party's demoralized cadres Sukhbir assured them about "again ruling Punjab for 10 years after rest of 5 years thus fulfilling his 2007 promise of ruling Punjab for 25 years".
Can Sukhbir's dream turn into a reality? The answer depends on a number of factors. The most important will be the capability of the party supremo Parkash Singh Badal whose amiable and please-all nature and an unmatched mass-contact stamina has earned him the distinction of being Punjab's popular mass-based leader. But the question is: will his age- he will be 95 in 2022- enable him to help Sukhbir fulfill his wish to return to power in 2022?
Capt. Amarinder Singh-led Congress government's performance and its ability to successfully handle the problems created by the decade-long Akali-BJP rule will determine the time the anti-incumbency sentiment gets generated. His government has inherited unprecedented problems created by the outgoing government. The state's coffers are empty and the debt burden is whopping Rs.178 lakh crore, pending unpaid bills of Rs.3,000 crore and revenue deficit of Rs. 8,000 crore.
In sharp contrast to 2007 Capt. Amarinder Singh is a changed person this time. He has successfully handled internal party issues including factionalism and tactfully handled his otherwise not too cordial relations with Rahul Gandhi who is known for his amateurish ways of handling the problems Congress has been facing.
His initial moves are promising. Amarinder Singh is acting on Winton Churchill's philosophical observation "A pessimist sees the difficulty in every opportunity; an optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty".
—(IPA Service)