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Trump's Jerusalem salvo

Kashmir Times. Dated: 12/9/2017 10:39:53 PM

Bluff, gamble or strategy; the move is most likely to make middle east more volatile

Throwing to wind the norms of signing the six month waiver of retaining the US embassy in Tel Aviv, the United States president Donald Trump preferred to follow his election campaign promise of declaring Jerusalem the official capital of Israel. The issue comes at a time when hopes were building up of some kind of an attempt to broker peace between Israel and Palestine. Jerusalem is one of the many contested issues in the decades long conflict and has the potential to set the already fragile politics of middle east on fire. Trump's shocking move is also likely to reframe the diplomatic equations given that many US allies in the middle east, including Jordan and Saudi Arabia, are opposed to such a move. The more dangerous outcome of the move is that Trump's announcement legitimises the whole of Jerusalem as belonging to Israel despite the pending claim of Palestine to East Jerusalem. The direct import of this is that the dozens of settlements built by Israel in East Jerusalem since 1967, in absolute violation of international law, would gain some legitimacy. Second, it weakens the prospect of a peace deal between Israel and Palestine, as it shows US entirely siding with the Israel state. Rather it is likely to prompt a flare-up, signs of which have already begun to emerge soon after Trump's rhetoric.
In a region still trying to recuperate from the ongoing tensions including many wars, Islamic State terror activities and recent Saudi Arabia-Lebanon- Iran tensions, it will not only pull the middle east into a more volatile vortex, it will also impact the influence of the United States, even if Trump's words were meant just for the effect and not for translating it on the ground. There are only two plausible explanations for this stupidity. Either, Trump's rhetoric was meant to satiate his racist and rabid anti-Muslim sentiment which had been a key feature in winning the support of conservative Jewish community and the conservative Christians. For both, Jerusalem carries an emotional value and for both wresting it from Muslims a religious imperative. Or, it was meant as a bluff in run up to American efforts to broker peace. If the latter is the case it may backfire simply because this is one of the most lame cases of diplomacy and comes at the huge cost of igniting the Middle east and pushing it to the darker recesses of instability.
Interestingly, a day or two before his shocker, Trump told West backed Palestionian leaders that that the final peace blueprint would offer the Palestinians an important settlement that they would be pleased with, but did not provide specifics. The rhetoric preceding the finalization of such a professed blue-print obviously puts a question mark on the peace process and the credibility of Trump, atleast among the Palestinians. Donald Trump's announcement on Jerusalem this week has not only reversed decades of US policy on Jerusalem's status. It has been met with fury in Palestine and put Abbas on the retreat as he showed reluctance to scheduled talks. An unrepentant Trump has warned against cancellation of talks. Far from ensuring peace and some semblance of stability, Trump's rhetoric has pushed middle east into deeper chaos. 31 Palestinians were killed in clashes by Thursday. The casualties are likely to inflate with each passing day. The Palestinian Islamist group Hamas has already called for a new intifada, or uprising. Trump's game plan is a matter of speculation. Other than his racist streak, what else is it inspired by? Many of his aides have hinted that this would enable Israel to make generous concessions and may not impact the bonhomie with US' traditional allies in the region as they need American pressures against Iran. If that is the case, it is a huge gamble. Besides, it does not take into account the tumultuous anger that such a move has inspired. The coming days will be interesting.