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Indo-Russian relations

Kashmir Times. Dated: 5/26/2018 4:01:51 PM

Narendra Modi's meeting with the Russian President signals a necessary recalibration in friendly relations

The Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi's visit and meeting on a day-long tour with Russian President Vladimir Putin appeared to have been long overdue in view of the trusted friendship spanning over many decades between the two countries. It is a welcome initiative that resulted in 'informal summit' at Sochi and brings into focus the need for a calibration in the relations between the two countries. It also appears to set a new normal in the foreign policy outreach on the part of India in the changing world scenario. This Sochi visit, which comes close on the heels of Modi's Wuhan meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping, was aimed at resetting and rebalancing bilateral ties that have weakened over the past few years. The durable understanding between India and Russia has frayed, with India drifting closer to the US and Russia to China. The personal touches - hugs, handshakes, a boat ride on the Black Sea - signalled the impression of two s leaders addressing each other's concerns 'one to one'. Substantively, Modi's visit was premised on a number of new realities facing India. Firstly, India's existing dependence on Russian military hardware, with orders for about US Dollars 12 billion more in the pipeline, must not be jeopardised at any cost. These have been made more difficult by a new US law (Countering America's Adversaries Through Sanctions Act) that would hit India's big-ticket hardware purchases and energy deals from Russia, and Modi would have wanted to reassure Putin that India will not bow to such pressure. Secondly, Russia's recent military exercises and helicopter sales to Pakistan as well as its outreach to the Afghan Taliban have been viewed with deep concern by India, which has sought to extract assurances that this would not in any way hurt its national security interests. Thirdly, the new push to strengthen ties is driven by the global instability that the Donald Trump administration has set off particularly in Middle East and South Asian region. India appears to have decided it can no longer depend on consistency in the US' foreign policy that may change over the next few years as per its own diplomatic needs and convenience. In the event of a change in the US policy, India should not be seen as a loser in the multi-polar world.
The frequent foreign jaunts of Modi during the past four years have given an impression that India was going under the influence of the developed Western countries and losing direction on its diplomatic front. In some cases, Modi was travelling unnecessarily when the job he undertook for himself could be completed by the Ministry of External Affairs or through the existing diplomatic channels. As a result, the recalibration of Modi's foreign policy from its perceived Western tilt to a more even-handed approach of aligning with all in India's interests is welcome. Informal summits of the kind in Sochi and Wuhan are also useful to break the ice and reset relations when needed particularly to offset the impression of Western tilt. But a comprehensive shift in foreign policy must be accompanied by greater transparency and other stakeholders also be taken on board before such an initiative. If India is contemplating a turnaround from its earlier postures with world powers, it needs to explain the change of course. The secrecy surrounding Modi's dashes to Wuhan and Sochi is intriguing since he is already scheduled to meet both Xi and Putin at least twice in the next two months, at the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit in Qingdao and the BRICS summit in Johannesburg. Even more curious are the official outcomes of the informal summits that India and China will cooperate in Afghanistan, while India and Russia will coordinate on the Indo-Pacific. The openness on the diplomatic relations with the two major powers China and Russia should have been there. Both have hitherto only been referenced in India's ties with the US and its allies, Europe, Japan and Australia. Without clarity, at a time of global flux India may appear to be attempting to travel in two boats at the same time. The changing world scenario should be grasped so that any policy shift that is being contemplated should be on sound footing and longer lasting that go in favour of Indian interests.