Congress needs more allies

Kashmir Times. Dated: 12/15/2018 3:29:10 PM

Congress has won recent round of Assembly elections with flip-flop alliance, but needs more allies before General Elections

The recent victory of the Congress in the Hindi and central heartland of India in the just concluded elections appear to have brightened the chances of an anti-BJP front for the next General Elections, which are a few months away. But the Congress, going by the previous experiences in pre-poll and post alliances and support from the regional parties, needs to respect the regional players and make some adjustments for defeating the fascist forces that are playing havoc with the social fabric and economy well-being of the country. If these adjustments and respect for the regional parties is found lacking in Congress, then the chances are that the Third Front may come up in the months to come. In fact, the Congress may have to drop its agenda against some regional players, which have been fighting the grand old party as well as the ruling dispensation at the centre and in some states across the country. It is also the need of the hour to tie up or stay away against the regional parties, which have bitterly contested and check the saffron march of BJP in some states in the South and Eastern part of the country. This is the reason that the Congress has suffered some losses in the absence of pre-poll alliances with the regional players in these states. Post-poll alliances are easier to formulate than pre-poll, as they are shaped by intractable realities of other parties that have to reconcile competing expectations of the prospective partners. It has been a blessing in disguise that Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), which had played hard to get with the Congress in pre-elections alliance negotiations, announced its support for the party in both Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan soon after the assembly election results were declared. The BSP support was welcome as the Congress was short of a majority in the two states. Now the Congress leaders should pause and consider a large number of seats that could be reaped in the event of a pre-poll tie up with BSP had been successful, particularly in MP. With 5 percent of the total vote share, the BSP won only two seats; but a pre-poll alliance would have garnered a total of 143 seats for the two parties in the 230-member House. In the first past the post electoral system, a seat-adjustment understanding, though difficult to realise, holds more benefits than a post-poll alliance. Both the Congress and the BSP may be tempted to think ahead on seat adjustments for the 2019 Lok Sabha polls to beat back the BJP's challenge. For the BSP, the stakes are higher in Uttar Pradesh than in the rest of the Hindi belt. The BSP's reasoning could be that in MP, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan, the Congress needs it more than it needs it. It is for the oldest party with higher stakes to be more adjusting to a junior partner that has nothing to lose and little to gain.
The same adjustments may not be necessary in Chhattisgarh, where a huge swing away from the BJP enabled the Congress to win a two-thirds majority. But the Third Front of the BSP and Ajit Jogi's Janta Congress Chhattisgarh got more than 11 percent of the vote share. Under such a situation, the Congress may have to forestall any attempt by Ajit Jogi to shake hands with the BJP at least for the next General Elections. In the Lok Sabha election, it will be critical for the Congress to maximise the yield from MP and Rajasthan, both big States, in order to squeeze the BJP at the national level. It may not be enough to just move ahead all alone as it did in the Assembly elections. If the party has learnt lessons from experience in the Gujarat election last year, the Congress may be persuaded to be more accommodative to prospective partners in the other States where it is in direct contest with the BJP. In sense it has to be understood that every victory may not only add to its tally, but also checks the BJP's in overall numbers. The different game of numbers in each state of the country has a bearing on the next electoral battle when it comes to Congress bracing itself for direct contest with the BJP. The lesson for Congress is it will have to repeat Gujarat, where it adopted a good strategy, and not Chhattisgarh, where it deployed indifferent tactics. It has to be more accommodative and adjusting for the future if it is really serious in checking the saffron expansion in rest of the country.

 

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