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Iran N-deal in danger

Kashmir Times. Dated: 5/17/2019 12:01:45 PM

After US withdrawal from the deal, time is running out for European signatories to address Iran's concerns

More than a year after US pulled out of the Iran nuclear deal, Iran has taken a decision to reduce its commitments under 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPA), which should serve as a warning than a move to break the agreement. It is surprising that the JCPA, which sought to curtail the nuclear capabilities of Iran, has been in limbo for more than a year for the other signatories from the European Union, due to indecisive follow up on their part. It is worth noting that Iran has been under immense economic and political pressure after President Donald Trump pulled US out of the deal for rolling back the entire nuclear enrichment programme, which has been claimed to be progressing for peaceful applications. But, unfortunately, the US has escalated its anti-Iran rhetoric and reimposed the economic sanctions. The reimposition of sanctions is likely to hit economic interests of the European Union and South Asian countries including India, which have invested heavily in infra-structural and other projects during the past three years when the nuclear deal was struck and was expected to ease economic sanctions against Iran in the years to come. But no such thing has happened and the economic interests of many countries will be adversely affected. While President Hassan Rouhani clinched the agreement in 2015 despite opposition from hardliners, his promise was that it would help lift sanctions, providing relief to Iran's economy. But the economic benefits did not last even three years, weakening Hassan Rouhani's position in Iran's complex power dynamics. With the US having ended the sanctions-waiver it had given to certain countries, including India, on purchasing Iranian oil, from the first week of May, the Iranian economy has come under more pressure. It is in this context that Hassan Rouhani announced the suspension of some of the restrictions in the deal. This was done in the hope that other stakeholders in the nuclear deal would intervene and help in saving the agreement reached in 2015. The countries dealing with import of oil from Iran were also expecting some relief in the process. The US action under Donald Trump has been described as unilateral without taking into confidence other stakeholders before the announcement.
After the announcement by Hassan Rouhani, Iran will immediately stop shipping out excess enriched uranium and heavy water. Hassan Rouhani has given 60 days to other signatories to find solutions to shield Iran's banking and oil sectors from US sanctions. In theory and understanding, excess enriched uranium and heavy water allow Iran to expand its nuclear programme, but it hasn't announced any such plan till date. The big threat is that it will resume higher levels of enrichment to build weapons unless its grievances are addressed in 60 days. Iran's response may appear to be calibrated. It has not made any announcement to the deal as been done the US. And its concerns are genuine as it is being punished even as it is compliant with the terms of the 2015 agreement. But Iran's move to put the remaining signatories on notice could be the start of the formal unravelling of the deal. European countries have been working on a mechanism, which is still in the initial stages, that allows Europe to trade with Iran through a barter system avoiding the US Dollar and circumventing sanctions. But it hasn't covered oil trade, the mainstay of Iran's economy. If Europe doesn't do enough in 60 days and Iran sticks to its threat, the deal will collapse, giving more reason to the US to escalate hostilities. It has, among other things, deployed an aircraft carrier and a bomber squad to the Persian Gulf. A practical alternative would be for Iran to end this brinkmanship and deepen cooperation with other signatories instead of breaking the nuclear deal. Europe and South Asian countries including India, on their part, should stand firmly up to the US' unilateral threats and pressure, and come up with ways to help Iran. Under the present circumstances, collapse of the nuclear deal would not only escalate the Iran nuclear crisis but also set a bad precedent in international diplomacy.