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Can Modi popularity alone help BJP to win elections

By Satish Misra. Dated: 5/23/2017 10:42:50 PM

After being in power at the Centre for three years, Prime Minister Narendra Modi's political fortune is smiling at him and he continues to enjoy people's confidence. Media surveys are unanimously pronouncing that the Prime Minister's popularity is high and he continues to remain the main USP of the BJP in times to come. If survey's assessment also conform to the existing ground realities and hard data is yet another dimension of the entire narrative of three years of the NDA rule.
Modi has undoubtedly won the perceptional battle though the country at large continues to battle basic problems or central issues of unemployment, poverty, bad governance, corruption and agriculture crisis. With Modi being the vote getter and BJP president Amit Shah being the master electoral craftsman, the BJP is surely travelling on the road of electoral victories in coming assembly election later this year and the next year leading to the general election in 2019.
Modi's appeal among the masses had begun to decline in the first half of the third year of the NDA government but it began to look up again in the second half resulting in the BJP's convincing victories in assembly elections in Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand. Though Modi's charisma could not work in Punjab where the Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD)-BJP alliance lost power in the assembly election but it was more because of the failure and resentment against the SAD and the BJP had to pay a price for being the junior partner in the 10 years of the alliance government.
The government made big moves of demonetization, surgical strike against Pakistan, enactment of the Central Goods and Services Act(GST) and its implementation from July this year and several other legislative and administrative steps. The Prime Minister caught citizen unawares.On November 8, 2016, he announced in his address to the nation that high value currency notes of Rs 1000 and Rs 500 denominations were a currency that were no more valid.
The Prime Minister had informed the nation that the move was directed at bringing out the black money, eliminating terror funding and weeding out counterfeit currency from circulation. Though none of the stated objectives was achieved even partially, the move proved to be masterstroke for Modi's personal image and credibility. His popularity soared among the poor and marginalized sections of society as the majority of them saw perceived demonetization against the well off and rich.
Earlier ostensibly to teach a lesson to country's western neighbor for aiding and abetting terrorism against India, a surgical strike across the Line of Control (LoC) was conducted against Pakistan on September 29 by the Indian Army. In the third year of in office, the government got the GST Act passed through the two houses of parliament. Though the Modi government began to pat its own back for getting the GST enacted, a GST bill, in fact, was moved in parliament by the predecessor UPA government. The BJP ruled state governments including that of Gujarat led by Modi as the chief minister of the state had vehemently opposed it then but after coming to power in 2014 there was radical transformation in the BJP's stand on the central tax.
On the economic front, notwithstanding the official claims, the national economic growth despite tweaking in the calculation of the GDP has hovered around 7 percent and in 2016-17 it is expected to remain at 7.7 percent which compared to the previous UPA' growth figures stands at 5.7 percent. Demonetisation brought down the GDP at least by 1.5% putting serious restrictions on growth.
Lower prices of crude oil in international markets provided a big relief to the Modi government reducing the country's import bill hugely. Otherwise, the economy would have been in a much worst state. Modi, campaigning for the BJP in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections and subsequently in state assembly elections, had promised created of 2crore jobs every year but the promised target is nowhere close to the figure. Unemployment or joblessness has been growing. In 2016-17, jobs increased by just 1.1%. Under employment or concealed unemployment is alarming.
The country is just moving on without any substantial change. No sector of economy has really taken off. Much hyped initiatives like 'Make in India' or 'Swachh Bharat Abhiyan' or 'Pradhan Mantri Jandhan Yojna" have not delivered desired results. Most of such programmes create lot of sound and fury signifying little or no change on ground.
Agricultural sector continues to remain under stress with rate of farmers committing suicides remaining high. A big push on irrigation that could have provided relief to the crucial sector developing the rural sector never came. Similarly, the government did not free Public Sector Banks and Public Sector enterprises from the government control.
Funding of elections or political donations, one of the root causes of corruption, has not even come under discussion what to say of bringing in transparency in the process of political funding.
On the foreign policy front, one of the declared objectives of the government to isolate Pakistan internationally is nowhere in sight. Relations with country's neighbours with the exception of Bangladesh are under stress. Ties with Nepal and Sri Lanka are also not very positive.
India-China relations have been witnessing a downward trend. India's decision to boycott One Belt One Road (OBOR) conference in Beijing on 14-15 May is the latest low point in bilateral ties. Cow vigilantism, rising nationalism bordering jingoism, intolerance towards liberal view, continuing challenge from left wing extremism and worsening situation in border state of Jammu& Kashmir coupled with jobless growth are some of the crisis points in national policy and society. Whether Modi's popularity with the people can prove to be enough to sustain the winning electoral streak is a question whose answer is not easy to give at present?
Dr. Satish Misra is a Veteran Journalist & Research Associate with Observer Research Foundation.
—[IFS]